Pines are coniferous trees of the Pinus genus with high economic importance in China. Thus, the Ma圎nt model proposed in this study can be potentially used to forecast the species distribution and disease risks and provide guidance for the timely prevention and management of B. Predicting the distribution of pine species and the impact of climate change on forest diseases is critical for controlling the pests according to local conditions. Therefore, we should plan appropriate measures to prevent its expansion. xylophilus threat in 20 under the two distinct climate change scenarios. The pine species will continue to face B. The area ideal for pine trees will migrate slightly northward under RCP 8.5. xylophilus will be different under climate change. xylophilus will continue to increase the shifts in the center of gravity of the suitable habitats of the three pine species and B. Bioclimatic variables related to temperature influenced pine trees’ distribution, while those related to precipitation affected B. Our model identified that the area south of the Yangtze River in China was the most severely affected place by pine wilt disease, and the eastern foothills of the Tibetan Plateau acted as a geographical barrier to pest distribution. Further, the potential distribution was modeled using the current (1970–2000) and the projected (20) climate data based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), and fairly robust prediction results were obtained. The maximum entropy (Ma圎nt) model was used in this study to identify the current and potential distribution and habitat suitability of three pine species and B. Climate change influences species and may exacerbate the risk of forest diseases, such as the pine wilt disease. Pine wilt disease is a devastating forest disease caused by the pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which has been listed as the object of quarantine in China. 2College of Materials Sciences and Technology, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology, Maoming, China.
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